Saturday, 25 October 2014

Will Joice Mujuru survive, or is this the end for her?

Knives are out for Vice-President Joice Mujuru as First Lady Grace Mugabe ups the ante in race to succeed President Mugabe
In my view, it isn't just about Joice Mujuru, but her whole camp. Technically they're in a commanding position and I think this over the top intimidation tactic being used by the other side is the only way they can achieve their ambitions.

They can't out-vote Joice's camp and they don't have the numbers to carry through all those amendments to the party constitution that they propose to do. On those amendments too, it should trouble anyone in Zanu that they're really seeking to create a highly centralised power structure in which the leader effectively becomes the party, just as Zvobgo's problematic amendments to the national constitution concentrated executive powers in the office of the president.

These enormous powers are in effect not really meant for Mugabe, but for the one who will soon take over from him. And the question is, why would they bend over backwards, cede their power to block this, and allow the Mnangagwa faction to reshape the party structure after its own image, ensuring that the Zanu president becomes all powerful and unchallengeable in future?

The allegations of corruption are a red herring - the entire state elite subsists off the state directly or indirectly, and as such none - including the Mugabes - are whistle-clean in that regard. It only needs someone in that Politburo meeting to suggest that everyone is guilty so why not have a commission of enquiry into corruption rather than unjustifiably single out one person, which tactic can be used against one after the other in a way that is politically motivated.

Lastly, the Themba Mliswa case in Mash West is instructive. That was an attempt to decimate the number of pro Mujuru supporters, but it backfired spectacularly and Mliswa has not been driven out. If there is that resolve by the pro Mujuru camp to hold the line and stand firm, knowing they remain in commanding position by doing so, why would they simply disintegrate and feed Joice to Ngwena?
I am not well versed in the intricacies of intra Zanu politics, but this is my view from outside looking in.

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